The Japan-Taiwan Alliance is Japan's lifeline.

Episode 8 February 15, 2026 00:02:43
The Japan-Taiwan Alliance is Japan's lifeline.
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The Japan-Taiwan Alliance is Japan's lifeline.

Feb 15 2026 | 00:02:43

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The Japan-Taiwan Alliance is Japan's lifeline.

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Episode Transcript

The Taiwan Strait is Japan's sea lane. If this is seized, Japan won't last even a few months. Therefore, we must not cede the Taiwan Strait to China. However, Japan is bound by its constitution and cannot act. Since openly forming an alliance would likely provoke an excessive reaction from China, how about supplying weapons unofficially? Direct transactions between Japanese defense contractors and the Taiwanese government, openly supplying arms, could be one approach. The strait's shallow depth makes submarines largely ineffective. Instead, focus arms transfers to Taiwan on enhancing air defense and anti-surface warfare capabilities. Japan is currently transitioning its main fighter fleet from F-15Js to F-35s. While the high total flight hours are an issue, transferring all of them to Taiwan is an option. Additionally, though this depends on the US, providing the Aegis system should be considered. If Taiwan could acquire the Aegis system combined with the Type 12 anti-ship missile, it could gain control of the seas and skies in the Taiwan Strait. However, Taiwan is at a disadvantage in terms of sustained combat capability. This is where Japan should extend a helping hand. Naturally, China will react negatively and attempt various forms of obstruction, but if Japan has already decoupled from China by then, it shouldn't be a problem. Taiwan is like a relative to Japan. Japan cannot stand by and watch a relative being mistreated. I believe China underestimates Japan on this point. In a crisis, U.S. forces would likely arrive too late. Therefore, the Maritime Self-Defense Force would likely act in response to a U.S. request, but the question is whether it could withstand China's overwhelming force. We must not forget that the goal is to buy time until U.S. forces arrive. However, Xi Jinping likely won't launch a military invasion during the Trump administration. He wants to economically co-opt Taiwan. Therefore, the truly dangerous period will be when the Trump administration ends and Xi Jinping is no longer Chairman – that will be a time of heightened danger and tension. I hope Taiwan has good fortune.

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